NCAAF
Illinois
5-0
UCLA
8-0
Win Probability
UCLA hosts an Illinois team looking to maintain its undefeated record, but the simulation decisively favors the home side. Ty Dieffenbach projects for 150 passing yards for UCLA while Illinois quarterback Katin Houser is modeled the same way, yet the difference lies elsewhere: Wayne Knight's 65 rushing yards for UCLA dwarf Aidan Laughery's 50 for Illinois, and that ground-game gap is what separates these teams in the projection. AccuScore has favored sides this strongly in 2,201 past games and won 76% of them. For Illinois to pull the upset, it would need Laughery and the passing attack to produce well beyond these projections while containing UCLA's rushing advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | UCLA | EV | ILL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -12.5 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10.5 | -115 | -1.8% | -105 | -2.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10.5 | -181 | -10.0% | -160 | -10.6% |
| Book | UCLA | EV | ILL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -500 | -3.7% | +380 | +4.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -450 | -2.8% | +340 | +0.2% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -430 | -2.4% | +252 | -9.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -552 | -4.4% | +193 | -16.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes UCLA 77% to beat Illinois (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UCLA the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UCLA a 77% chance of beating Illinois, against 23% for Illinois. UCLA are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Illinois (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.5–5.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UCLA (8-0 so far) project to finish 10.5–1.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 59% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Illinois and UCLA come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Illinois have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
UCLA have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2011: Illinois 1, UCLA 0. The last meeting, on Dec 31, 2011, finished UCLA 14, Illinois 20.
Illinois are 35-19 as favourite and 28-72 as underdog, and 25-45 on the road (36% of 70 games, 2011–2026).
UCLA are 67-24 as favourite and 22-52 as underdog, and 54-37 at home (59% of 91 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ILL | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 35-19 | 67-24 |
| As underdog | 28-72 | 22-52 |
| At home | 45-48 | 54-37 |
| On the road | 25-45 | 39-42 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →