#17Houston
6-2
Colorado
3-5
Win Probability
Houston arrives at Colorado as a decisive favorite in the simulation. The Cougars' ground game will be anchored by Makhi Hughes, projected for 65 rushing yards, while the Buffaloes counter with Isaac Wilson's passing attack—he is slated for 160 yards through the air. Colorado's receiving corps, led by Joseph Williams at 45 yards, will need to establish consistent rhythm to keep pace; the simulation turns on whether Wilson can sustain drives against Houston's pressure. In similar matchups where the model leaned this heavily toward the visiting team, the favored side won 76% of the time. For Colorado to pull off the upset at home, the Buffaloes would need to force Houston into costly mistakes while protecting Wilson in the pocket.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | COLO | EV | HOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | +11.5 | -150 | -6.6% | -150 | -10.1% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +10.5 | -120 | -5.3% | -124 | -3.7% |
| Book | COLO | EV | HOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +313 | -1.9% | -404 | -2.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +257 | -8.4% | -480 | -3.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 47.5 | -150 | -5.9% | -150 | -10.7% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston 77% to beat Colorado (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Colorado a 23% chance of beating Houston, against 77% for Houston. Colorado are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Houston (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.7–3.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Colorado (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.3–7.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Houston and Colorado come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Houston have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Colorado have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Houston 1, Colorado 0. The last meeting, on Sep 12, 2025, finished Colorado 20, Houston 36.
Houston are 84-30 as favourite and 21-31 as underdog, and 50-34 on the road (60% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
Colorado are 25-9 as favourite and 21-98 as underdog, and 32-48 at home (40% of 80 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | HOU | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 84-30 | 25-9 |
| As underdog | 21-31 | 21-98 |
| At home | 58-31 | 32-48 |
| On the road | 50-34 | 19-62 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →