James Madison
8-2
UConn
4-5
Win Probability
James Madison travels to UConn as a clear favourite in the simulation's 50,000 runs. The Dukes' passing game will need to establish itself early; JC Evans is projected for only 140 yards, well below what a visiting team typically requires to win on the road. UConn quarterback Kalieb Osborne has more volume in front of him at 200 projected passing yards, suggesting the Huskies can stay competitive if their defence limits James Madison's run game, where Seth Cromwell projects for 55 yards. In simulations shaped like this one across eight other matchups, the favoured side won five times. For UConn to pull the upset, the home crowd would need to disrupt James Madison's timing enough that Evans cannot sustain drives—a tall order given the visitors' advantage in the model's eyes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | CONN | EV | JMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | +2.5 | +100 | -10.0% | -150 | -0.0% |
| Book | CONN | EV | JMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +118 | -11.7% | -155 | +3.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +103 | -14.4% | -171 | +1.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 57.5 | -133 | -2.5% | -117 | -7.5% |
| ProphetX ↗ | 57.5 | -137 | -3.1% | -131 | -9.6% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes James Madison 65% to beat UConn (35%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes James Madison the more likely winner at 65%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UConn a 35% chance of beating James Madison, against 65% for James Madison. UConn are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
James Madison (8-2 so far) project to finish 9.5–2.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UConn (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.7–6.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 9.5–2.5 | 69% | 4% |
| UConn | 5.7–6.3 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How James Madison and UConn come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
James Madison have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
UConn have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
UConn are 22-12 as favourite and 20-86 as underdog, and 30-43 at home (41% of 73 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | JMU | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | — | 22-12 |
| As underdog | — | 20-86 |
| At home | — | 30-43 |
| On the road | — | 17-60 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →