Boston College
4-4
#4Notre Dame
8-0
Win Probability
Notre Dame hosts Boston College in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the home side. CJ Carr projects to 210 passing yards for Notre Dame, while Mason McKenzie is expected to manage just 120 for the visiting Eagles—a gap that reflects how the game is likely to unfold. The decisive factor is Boston College's offensive constraints: with projected totals this modest across the board, the Eagles' ability to generate sustained drives will determine whether this becomes a blowout or merely a comfortable Notre Dame victory. AccuScore's model has favored one side this heavily in similar spots 98 times before, and that side won 93 percent of those games. For Boston College to pull the upset, McKenzie and the passing game would need to exceed their projections substantially and the defense would have to contain Notre Dame's ground attack led by Nolan James Jr., who is projected for 75 rushing yards.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ND | EV | BC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -31.5 | -110 | -0.1% | -110 | -4.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -30.5 | -110 | +2.8% | -110 | -7.4% |
| Book | ND | EV | BC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10000 | -0.4% | +3000 | -22.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -8000 | -0.3% | +2000 | -31.1% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -5268 | +0.0% | +3021 | -21.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -6473 | -0.1% | +1975 | -31.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -115 | +0.9% | -105 | -5.6% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Notre Dame 98% to beat Boston College (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Notre Dame the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Notre Dame a 98% chance of beating Boston College, against 2% for Boston College. Notre Dame are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Boston College (4-4 so far) project to finish 4.9–7.1 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Notre Dame (7-1 so far) project to finish 10.4–1.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 91% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College | 4.9–7.1 | 0% | <1% |
| Notre Dame | 10.4–1.6 | 0% | 91% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Boston College and Notre Dame come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Boston College have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Notre Dame have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 8 times since 2011: Boston College 0, Notre Dame 8. The last meeting, on Nov 1, 2025, finished Notre Dame 25, Boston College 10.
Boston College are 29-22 as favourite and 30-75 as underdog, and 30-52 on the road (37% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
Notre Dame are 115-22 as favourite and 16-22 as underdog, and 88-19 at home (82% of 107 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 29-22 | 115-22 |
| As underdog | 30-75 | 16-22 |
| At home | 33-50 | 88-19 |
| On the road | 30-52 | 54-25 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →