Fresno State
5-3
Texas State
4-4
Win Probability
Fresno State travels to face Texas State in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the home side. The Bulldogs will need to overcome a decisive lean toward the Rebels, who project to win by double digits in this contest. On games shaped this way—where the model has leaned this heavily to one side—the favored team won 76% of the time across 2,212 graded matchups. For Fresno State to pull the upset, it would need to execute with precision while Texas State's offense misfires; the game turns on whether the Rebels can sustain drives and capitalize on early field position.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | TXST | EV | FRES | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -340 | -1.3% | +266 | -4.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -421 | -3.4% | -105 | -25.9% |
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Fresno State (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.9–4.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno State | 6.9–4.1 | 1% | 1% |
| Texas State | 5.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State 75% to beat Fresno State (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas State a 75% chance of beating Fresno State, against 25% for Fresno State. Texas State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Fresno State and Texas State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Fresno State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Texas State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Fresno State are 64-23 as favourite and 22-49 as underdog, and 43-49 on the road (47% of 92 games, 2011–2026).
Texas State are 25-16 as favourite and 17-84 as underdog, and 29-42 at home (41% of 71 games, 2012–2026).
| Record | FRES | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 64-23 | 25-16 |
| As underdog | 22-49 | 17-84 |
| At home | 46-29 | 29-42 |
| On the road | 43-49 | 18-61 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →