NCAAF
Oregon State
5-3
#20Boise State
7-1
Win Probability
Oregon State travels to face Boise State in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. The Broncos' advantage turns on field position and third-down efficiency; across eight similar games where the model favored one team this strongly, that side won six. Oregon State will need to impose its will on early downs and force Boise State into obvious passing situations to stay within range. If the Broncos can establish rhythm through the middle of the field, Oregon State's path to an upset narrows considerably.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | BOIS | EV | ORST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -6.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5.5 | -181 | -9.7% | -160 | -11.0% |
| Book | BOIS | EV | ORST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -215 | -1.4% | +175 | -3.8% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -340 | -7.0% | +208 | +1.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -373 | -7.9% | +162 | -6.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 64 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 63.5 | -181 | -10.1% | -172 | -11.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 33.6%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State 66% to beat Oregon State (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boise State a 66% chance of beating Oregon State, against 34% for Oregon State. Boise State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Oregon State (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.8–4.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Boise State (7-1 so far) project to finish 9.4–1.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 44% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon State | 6.8–4.2 | 21% | 2% |
| Boise State | 9.4–1.6 | 78% | 44% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Oregon State and Boise State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oregon State have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Boise State have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2013: Oregon State 2, Boise State 2. The last meeting, on Nov 29, 2024, finished Oregon State 18, Boise State 34.
Oregon State are 28-19 as favourite and 24-75 as underdog, and 21-58 on the road (27% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
Boise State are 120-26 as favourite and 8-18 as underdog, and 73-18 at home (80% of 91 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ORST | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 28-19 | 120-26 |
| As underdog | 24-75 | 8-18 |
| At home | 32-43 | 73-18 |
| On the road | 21-58 | 63-27 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →