San José State
5-5
Air Force
7-2
Win Probability
San José State travels to face Air Force in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Falcons have won 76% of games where AccuScore's model has leaned this strongly in their direction across 2,212 graded contests. Air Force's defence will need to contain San José State's passing attack, while the visitors must find a way to disrupt what projects as a balanced offensive approach from the hosts. For San José State to pull the upset, their defence would need to force Air Force into mistakes and keep pace in a game that could easily swing on field position and execution in the red zone.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | AFA | EV | SJSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -11.5 | -122 | -4.6% | -122 | -4.4% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -11.5 | -126 | -5.3% | -126 | -5.1% |
| Book | AFA | EV | SJSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -458 | -2.4% | +331 | -3.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -552 | -3.8% | +286 | -7.9% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Air Force 78% to beat San José State (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Air Force the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Air Force a 78% chance of beating San José State, against 22% for San José State. Air Force are at home and favoured on these numbers.
San José State (5-5 so far) project to finish 5.7–7.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Air Force (7-2 so far) project to finish 8.9–3.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| San José State | 5.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% |
| Air Force | 8.9–3.1 | 4% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How San José State and Air Force come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San José State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Air Force have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2015: San José State 1, Air Force 4. The last meeting, on Nov 8, 2025, finished Air Force 26, San José State 16.
San José State are 33-17 as favourite and 18-71 as underdog, and 24-57 on the road (30% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
Air Force are 58-30 as favourite and 19-42 as underdog, and 50-29 at home (63% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | SJSU | AFA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 33-17 | 58-30 |
| As underdog | 18-71 | 19-42 |
| At home | 31-36 | 50-29 |
| On the road | 24-57 | 34-46 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →