UNLV
5-4
New Mexico
8-1
Win Probability
New Mexico hosts UNLV in a game where the simulation strongly favors the Lobos. AccuScore's model has run 50,000 simulations and leans decisively toward the home side, which has won 86% of the time in past games shaped this similarly. The matchup turns on whether UNLV can keep pace offensively; New Mexico's defense will need to maintain the kind of performance that has produced this projection. In comparable spots across eight other games, the favored side won six times. For the Rebels to pull the upset, they would need to overcome a New Mexico team that enters 8-1 and generate significantly more offensive production than the model expects.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | UNM | EV | UNLV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -13.5 | -138 | -6.1% | -133 | -7.0% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -13.5 | -129 | -4.8% | -122 | -5.3% |
| Book | UNM | EV | UNLV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -609 | -2.2% | +490 | +2.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -704 | -3.1% | +434 | -2.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 47.5 | -130 | -0.8% | -102 | -6.1% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico 82% to beat UNLV (18%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico the more likely winner at 82%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New Mexico a 82% chance of beating UNLV, against 18% for UNLV. New Mexico are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UNLV (5-4 so far) project to finish 7.4–4.6 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New Mexico (8-1 so far) project to finish 10.1–1.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 27% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 7.4–4.6 | <1% | <1% |
| New Mexico | 10.1–1.9 | 76% | 27% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UNLV and New Mexico come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UNLV have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
New Mexico have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 9 times since 2011: UNLV 5, New Mexico 4. The last meeting, on Nov 1, 2025, finished New Mexico 40, UNLV 35.
UNLV are 24-22 as favourite and 24-79 as underdog, and 25-61 on the road (29% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
New Mexico are 28-13 as favourite and 18-90 as underdog, and 26-44 at home (37% of 70 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UNLV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 24-22 | 28-13 |
| As underdog | 24-79 | 18-90 |
| At home | 31-42 | 26-44 |
| On the road | 25-61 | 25-63 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →