North Dakota State
7-2
Hawai'i
3-6
Win Probability
North Dakota State travels to Hawai'i as a clear favourite in this matchup between a 7-2 team and a 3-6 squad. The simulation leans emphatically toward the Bison, who project to win by a touchdown. That margin hinges on field position and execution in the red zone—a handful of possessions could swing the outcome either way, and Hawai'i's defence will need to tighten significantly to stay in this one. In games where AccuScore has favoured a side this strongly, that side won 66 percent of the time across 2,524 graded contests. The Rainbow Warriors cover if they can limit the Bison to field goals rather than touchdowns and manufacture a couple of scoring drives themselves.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | HAW | EV | NDSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +266 | +8.2% | -322 | -5.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +162 | -8.3% | -421 | -7.8% |
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North Dakota State (7-2 so far) project to finish 9.2–2.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 9.2–2.8 | 4% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes North Dakota State 68% to beat Hawai'i (32%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Dakota State the more likely winner at 68%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Hawai'i a 32% chance of beating North Dakota State, against 68% for North Dakota State. Hawai'i are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How North Dakota State and Hawai'i come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
North Dakota State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Hawai'i have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Hawai'i are 28-13 as favourite and 23-85 as underdog, and 34-45 at home (43% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NDSU | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | — | 28-13 |
| As underdog | — | 23-85 |
| At home | — | 34-45 |
| On the road | — | 22-62 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →