Ball State
3-7
Ohio
7-3
Win Probability
Ball State travels to face Ohio in a matchup where the simulation leans decisively toward the home side. The Cardinals project to 20.5 points while the Bobcats are expected around 31.5, a gap that hinges on Ball State's ability to generate offensive pressure in a hostile environment. Across eight historically similar games, AccuScore's favoured side won 7 of them—a 88% record when the lean has been this strong. For Ball State to pull the upset, it would need to keep Ohio's scoring well below projection and convert its own limited opportunities into points.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | OHIO | EV | BALL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -360 | -0.9% | +266 | -7.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -448 | -3.0% | +233 | -11.4% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio 77% to beat Ball State (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ohio a 77% chance of beating Ball State, against 23% for Ball State. Ohio are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Ball State (3-7 so far) project to finish 3.5–8.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Ohio (7-3 so far) project to finish 8.3–3.7 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | 3.5–8.5 | 0% | 0% |
| Ohio | 8.3–3.7 | 13% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Ball State and Ohio come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Ball State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Ohio have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 8 times since 2011: Ball State 3, Ohio 5. The last meeting, on Oct 4, 2025, finished Ohio 14, Ball State 20.
Ball State are 33-17 as favourite and 24-76 as underdog, and 28-61 on the road (31% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
Ohio are 67-26 as favourite and 22-40 as underdog, and 55-20 at home (73% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BALL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 33-17 | 67-26 |
| As underdog | 24-76 | 22-40 |
| At home | 32-38 | 55-20 |
| On the road | 28-61 | 43-47 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →