Akron
1-9
Massachusetts
5-5
Win Probability
Akron travels to face Massachusetts in a matchup that leans clearly toward the home side. The simulation gives Massachusetts the advantage, though both teams project to score in the low-to-mid 20s. Akron's defense will need to tighten considerably; across eight statistically similar games, the favored side won five. Massachusetts must sustain enough offensive pressure to keep pace—if Akron's attack finds rhythm, the visitor has the talent to pull the upset despite the projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | MASS | EV | AKR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | +3.1% | -110 | -7.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -2.5 | -10969 | -21.9% | -135 | -11.4% |
| Book | MASS | EV | AKR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -132 | +3.5% | +112 | -8.6% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -148 | +1.0% | +114 | -8.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -171 | -1.7% | -101 | -11.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | +0.5% | -115 | -4.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 45.5 | -5429 | -23.7% | -5429 | -25.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 60.9%
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Akron (1-9 so far) project to finish 1.6–10.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Massachusetts (5-5 so far) project to finish 6.0–6.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | 1.6–10.4 | 0% | 0% |
| Massachusetts | 6.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Massachusetts 61% to beat Akron (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Massachusetts the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Massachusetts a 61% chance of beating Akron, against 39% for Akron. Massachusetts are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Akron and Massachusetts come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Akron have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Massachusetts have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2012: Akron 4, Massachusetts 1. The last meeting, on Nov 3, 2025, finished Massachusetts 10, Akron 44.
Akron are 19-13 as favourite and 13-103 as underdog, and 19-71 on the road (21% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
Massachusetts are 7-8 as favourite and 11-85 as underdog, and 10-42 at home (19% of 52 games, 2012–2026).
| Record | AKR | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 19-13 | 7-8 |
| As underdog | 13-103 | 11-85 |
| At home | 17-50 | 10-42 |
| On the road | 19-71 | 8-59 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →