Central Michigan
5-5
Buffalo
7-3
Win Probability
Central Michigan travels to Buffalo in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side, though neither team has pulled decisively ahead. The Chippewas' defense will be tested early; Buffalo's passing attack projects to move the ball consistently, while Central Michigan's ground game needs to establish itself to keep pace. Across eight similar games where the model leaned this way, the favored side won just 37% of the time, a reminder that close contests often defy prediction. For the Chippewas to leave with a win, they'll need to win the possession battle and force Buffalo into mistakes in the second half.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | BUFF | EV | CMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -2.5 | -120 | -1.6% | +100 | -2.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -2.5 | -10969 | -23.4% | -129 | -8.1% |
| Book | BUFF | EV | CMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -138 | +0.3% | +116 | -5.0% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -155 | -2.0% | +118 | -4.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -171 | -3.8% | +107 | -6.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 43.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 43.5 | -5429 | -24.9% | -5429 | -24.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 58.3%
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Central Michigan (5-5 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Buffalo (7-3 so far) project to finish 8.3–3.7 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan | 6.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% |
| Buffalo | 8.3–3.7 | 11% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo 58% to beat Central Michigan (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Buffalo a 58% chance of beating Central Michigan, against 42% for Central Michigan. Buffalo are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Central Michigan and Buffalo come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Central Michigan have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Buffalo have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 6 times since 2014: Central Michigan 4, Buffalo 2. The last meeting, on Nov 11, 2025, finished Buffalo 19, Central Michigan 38.
Central Michigan are 39-19 as favourite and 28-67 as underdog, and 35-58 on the road (38% of 93 games, 2011–2026).
Buffalo are 46-13 as favourite and 18-68 as underdog, and 38-32 at home (54% of 70 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CMU | BUFF |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 39-19 | 46-13 |
| As underdog | 28-67 | 18-68 |
| At home | 34-37 | 38-32 |
| On the road | 35-58 | 35-53 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →