Arkansas State
4-6
Louisiana Tech
8-2
Win Probability
Louisiana Tech hosts Arkansas State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Blake Baker's projected 180 passing yards anchors Louisiana Tech's attack, while Trey Owens figures to manage 180 yards through the air for the visitors—a near-parity in volume that masks a significant gap in overall offensive efficiency. The game hinges on ground game production: Rayshun Hurt's projected 60 rushing yards for Louisiana Tech against Kenyon Clay's 35 for Arkansas State represent the kind of run-game differential that typically separates winners from losers at this level. AccuScore's model has favoured sides this strongly in 1,786 graded games and won 86% of them. Arkansas State would need a historically sharp passing day and containment of Hurt's carries to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | LT | EV | ARST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -16.5 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.1% |
| Book | LT | EV | ARST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -850 | -2.2% | +575 | -1.4% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -609 | -0.2% | +456 | -10.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -771 | -1.6% | +286 | -22.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | +1.6% | -110 | -6.2% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana Tech 86% to beat Arkansas State (14%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana Tech the more likely winner at 86%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Louisiana Tech a 86% chance of beating Arkansas State, against 14% for Arkansas State. Louisiana Tech are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Arkansas State (4-6 so far) project to finish 4.8–7.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Louisiana Tech (8-2 so far) project to finish 9.3–2.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 4.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% |
| Louisiana Tech | 9.3–2.7 | >99% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Arkansas State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Louisiana Tech have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Arkansas State are 60-24 as favourite and 19-53 as underdog, and 40-54 on the road (43% of 94 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ARST | LT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 60-24 | — |
| As underdog | 19-53 | — |
| At home | 45-26 | — |
| On the road | 40-54 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →