Iowa State
4-5
UCF
5-4
Win Probability
This is a coin-flip between Iowa State and UCF, with the simulation favoring the home side only marginally. Iowa State's Jaylen Raynor is projected for 180 passing yards, while UCF's Landen Chambers figures for 50 rushing yards—a disparity that captures the game's central tension: Iowa State's passing attack against UCF's ground-oriented approach. The outcome hinges on whether the visitors can sustain offensive rhythm; in 2,712 prior games shaped this closely, AccuScore's favored side won 55% of the time. For Iowa State to prevail on the road, Omari Hayes and the receiving corps will need to consistently move the chains, because UCF's defense has shown enough to keep this tight throughout.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | UCF | EV | ISU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1.5 | -105 | -3.8% | -115 | -0.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -0.9% |
| Book | UCF | EV | ISU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -112 | -2.8% | -108 | -1.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -115 | -3.4% | -105 | -1.1% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -107 | -1.7% | -121 | -4.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -105 | -1.3% | -128 | -5.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State 50% to beat UCF (50%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State the more likely winner at 50%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UCF a 50% chance of beating Iowa State, against 50% for Iowa State. UCF are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Iowa State (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.2–6.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UCF (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.2–5.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | 5.2–6.8 | 0% | <1% |
| UCF | 6.2–5.8 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Iowa State and UCF come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Iowa State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
UCF have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: Iowa State 1, UCF 0. The last meeting, on Oct 19, 2024, finished UCF 35, Iowa State 38.
Iowa State are 46-16 as favourite and 24-71 as underdog, and 31-51 on the road (38% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
UCF are 85-25 as favourite and 15-37 as underdog, and 60-26 at home (70% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ISU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 46-16 | 85-25 |
| As underdog | 24-71 | 15-37 |
| At home | 45-41 | 60-26 |
| On the road | 31-51 | 42-43 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →