Vanderbilt
4-5
Florida
5-4
Win Probability
Vanderbilt travels to face Florida in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Jared Curtis projects to 160 passing yards for Vanderbilt, while Florida's Jadan Baugh is expected to rush for 70 yards—a differential that hints at where this game will be decided. The visiting offense will need to sustain drives through the air to keep pace, but Vanderbilt's receiving weapons, led by Junior Sherrill's projected 45 yards, face a significant workload. When AccuScore has leaned this heavily toward the home team across similar spots, that side won 76% of its past matchups. For Vanderbilt to pull the upset, Curtis and the passing game must be far more efficient than the model projects.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | FLA | EV | VAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -11 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Book | FLA | EV | VAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -480 | -3.4% | +365 | +3.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -475 | -3.3% | +360 | +2.7% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -524 | -4.1% | +373 | +4.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -513 | -3.9% | +202 | -15.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 49.5 | -105 | +0.4% | -115 | -4.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 49 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.2% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida 77% to beat Vanderbilt (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida a 77% chance of beating Vanderbilt, against 23% for Vanderbilt. Florida are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Vanderbilt (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.6–6.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.2–5.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanderbilt | 5.6–6.4 | 0% | 1% |
| Florida | 6.2–5.8 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Vanderbilt and Florida come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Vanderbilt have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Florida have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Vanderbilt 2, Florida 10. The last meeting, on Nov 19, 2022, finished Florida 24, Vanderbilt 31.
Vanderbilt are 34-14 as favourite and 26-83 as underdog, and 24-51 on the road (32% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
Florida are 72-28 as favourite and 20-40 as underdog, and 59-31 at home (66% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | VAN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 34-14 | 72-28 |
| As underdog | 26-83 | 20-40 |
| At home | 40-50 | 59-31 |
| On the road | 24-51 | 37-40 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →