NCAAF
#13Kentucky
7-2
Missouri
6-3
Win Probability
Missouri hosts Kentucky in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side. Austin Simmons projects to 200 passing yards for Missouri against Kenny Minchey's 180 for Kentucky, a modest gap that underscores how tight the offensive outputs should be. The game turns on Missouri's rushing advantage: Jamal Roberts is projected for 80 yards compared to Kentucky's Jason Patterson at 45, a differential of 35 yards that could prove decisive in a low-scoring affair. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side won 66 percent of 2,525 graded matchups. For Kentucky to pull the upset, the Wildcats would need to neutralize that ground advantage and force Missouri into passing situations where Minchey can exploit coverage weaknesses.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | MIZ | EV | UK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -5.5 | -115 | -1.8% | -105 | -2.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -6 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5.5 | -10969 | -24.0% | -10969 | -25.6% |
| Book | MIZ | EV | UK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -205 | -0.8% | +170 | -4.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -215 | -1.6% | +176 | -3.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -205 | -0.8% | +170 | -4.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -417 | -9.0% | -188 | -24.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -2.5% | -110 | -2.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 49.5 | -5429 | -23.6% | -5429 | -25.5% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri 66% to beat Kentucky (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Missouri a 66% chance of beating Kentucky, against 34% for Kentucky. Missouri are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Kentucky (7-2 so far) project to finish 8.6–3.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Missouri (6-3 so far) project to finish 7.4–4.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Kentucky and Missouri come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Kentucky have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Missouri have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2012: Kentucky 7, Missouri 4. The last meeting, on Nov 5, 2022, finished Kentucky 21, Missouri 17.
Kentucky are 46-14 as favourite and 28-69 as underdog, and 22-48 on the road (31% of 70 games, 2011–2026).
Missouri are 64-20 as favourite and 24-50 as underdog, and 61-30 at home (67% of 91 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 46-14 | 64-20 |
| As underdog | 28-69 | 24-50 |
| At home | 52-41 | 61-30 |
| On the road | 22-48 | 34-43 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →