Texas A&M
4-6
Oklahoma
5-4
Win Probability
Oklahoma hosts Texas A&M in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the Sooners. John Mateer's projected 170 passing yards will need to translate into points efficiently, while Marcel Reed and the Aggies' attack figure to struggle to keep pace; Reed is projected for just 150 passing yards. The decisive factor is Oklahoma's advantage in receiving options—Isaiah Sategna III, Manny Choice, and Jacob Jordan are projected for 75 combined receiving yards against Texas A&M's Isaiah Horton at 25—which should allow the home offense more ways to move the ball. AccuScore's model favored one side this strongly in 2,539 graded games 66% of the time. Texas A&M would need the simulation's projection to compress significantly and their passing game to exceed expectations to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | OU | EV | TA&M | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7.5 | -105 | -3.6% | -115 | -0.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7.5 | -105 | -3.6% | -115 | -0.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -7 | -115 | -3.9% | -105 | -0.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -7.5 | -106 | -3.8% | -114 | -0.7% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -7.5 | -107 | -4.1% | -117 | -1.3% |
| Book | OU | EV | TA&M | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -278 | -4.0% | +225 | +2.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -295 | -4.7% | +235 | +4.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -285 | -4.3% | +230 | +3.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -295 | -4.7% | +235 | +4.1% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -286 | -4.3% | +220 | +1.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 39.5 | -108 | -3.3% | -110 | -0.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 39.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 39.5 | -112 | -4.1% | -112 | -1.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 32.3%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma 68% to beat Texas A&M (32%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma the more likely winner at 68%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oklahoma a 68% chance of beating Texas A&M, against 32% for Texas A&M. Oklahoma are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Texas A&M (4-6 so far) project to finish 5.6–6.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oklahoma (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Texas A&M and Oklahoma come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas A&M have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Oklahoma have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2011: Texas A&M 1, Oklahoma 1. The last meeting, on Jan 4, 2013, finished Texas A&M 41, Oklahoma 13.
Texas A&M are 81-26 as favourite and 14-37 as underdog, and 33-35 on the road (49% of 68 games, 2011–2026).
Oklahoma are 121-29 as favourite and 13-11 as underdog, and 78-23 at home (77% of 101 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TA&M | OU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 81-26 | 121-29 |
| As underdog | 14-37 | 13-11 |
| At home | 66-32 | 78-23 |
| On the road | 33-35 | 59-22 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →