NCAAF
#1Georgia
8-1
#20South Carolina
6-3
Win Probability
Georgia travels to South Carolina as a decisive favourite in this matchup between the Bulldogs and the Gamecocks. The simulation leans heavily toward the visitors, a lean that has held up in similar spots: when the model has favoured a side this strongly across 2,213 graded games, that side won 76 percent of the time. Georgia's passing game projects as the fulcrum, with Gunner Stockton expected to reach 180 yards while South Carolina's Jabree Coleman manages only 40 rushing yards. The game turns on whether South Carolina can generate enough offensive pressure to stay within range, a task that looks steep given the gap in projected output between the teams' primary weapons.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | SC | EV | UGA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +10 | -110 | -2.9% | -110 | -1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +9.5 | -105 | -3.5% | -115 | -1.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +10 | -110 | -2.9% | -110 | -1.5% |
| Book | SC | EV | UGA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +285 | -2.3% | -360 | -2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +275 | -3.5% | -345 | -1.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +290 | -1.6% | -375 | -2.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -102 | -25.4% | -1472 | -9.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | -1.6% | -110 | -2.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 52.5 | -105 | -2.6% | -115 | -1.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | -1.6% | -110 | -2.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia 75% to beat South Carolina (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Carolina a 25% chance of beating Georgia, against 75% for Georgia. South Carolina are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Georgia (8-1 so far) project to finish 10.2–1.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 90% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Carolina (6-3 so far) project to finish 7.7–4.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 10.2–1.8 | 89% | 90% |
| South Carolina | 7.7–4.3 | <1% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Georgia and South Carolina come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Georgia have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
South Carolina have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2011: Georgia 7, South Carolina 4. The last meeting, on Sep 17, 2022, finished Georgia 48, South Carolina 7.
Georgia are 121-23 as favourite and 9-14 as underdog, and 59-16 on the road (79% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
South Carolina are 55-19 as favourite and 29-55 as underdog, and 63-32 at home (66% of 95 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UGA | SC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 121-23 | 55-19 |
| As underdog | 9-14 | 29-55 |
| At home | 79-22 | 63-32 |
| On the road | 59-16 | 28-44 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →