#24LSU
6-3
#9Tennessee
7-2
Win Probability
LSU travels to Tennessee as a slight favourite in a game that projects as one of the closest contests on the board. Sam Leavitt's projected 190 passing yards will need to move the ball efficiently against a Tennessee defence that George MacIntyre is expected to challenge with 150 yards through the air himself. The outcome hinges on ground game execution: DeSean Bishop's projected 75 rushing yards for Tennessee against Dilin Jones's 55 for LSU represents the gap most likely to decide a one-point game. AccuScore's model favoured sides in this win-probability range in 55 of its last 100 graded games shaped similarly. For Tennessee to prevail at home, the Volunteers would need Bishop to exceed his projection and LSU's passing game to stall below Leavitt's expected output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | TENN | EV | LSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | +100 | +2.7% | -120 | -6.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +2 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +2.5 | -332 | -15.7% | -393 | -20.3% |
| Book | TENN | EV | LSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +100 | -4.1% | -120 | -0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +118 | +0.0% | -140 | -3.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +105 | -3.0% | -125 | -1.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -332 | -20.1% | -332 | -14.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | -1.3% | -110 | -3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | +100 | +1.0% | -120 | -5.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | -1.3% | -110 | -3.2% |
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LSU (6-3 so far) project to finish 7.4–4.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tennessee (7-2 so far) project to finish 8.3–3.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 26% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes LSU 54% to beat Tennessee (46%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes LSU the more likely winner at 54%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tennessee a 46% chance of beating LSU, against 54% for LSU. Tennessee are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How LSU and Tennessee come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
LSU have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Tennessee have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2011: LSU 2, Tennessee 1. The last meeting, on Oct 8, 2022, finished Tennessee 40, LSU 13.
LSU are 93-25 as favourite and 17-23 as underdog, and 39-29 on the road (57% of 68 games, 2011–2026).
Tennessee are 59-24 as favourite and 14-55 as underdog, and 58-34 at home (63% of 92 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | LSU | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 93-25 | 59-24 |
| As underdog | 17-23 | 14-55 |
| At home | 77-22 | 58-34 |
| On the road | 39-29 | 24-47 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →