Arkansas
3-6
#8Texas
7-2
Win Probability
Texas hosts Arkansas in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Arch Manning's projected 200 passing yards will anchor the Texas offense, while KJ Jackson needs to exceed 150 yards through the air for Arkansas to stay competitive—a tall task for a Razorbacks team that will struggle to move the ball consistently. The game turns on whether Arkansas can establish anything on the ground; Cam Settles is projected for just 35 rushing yards, a sign the simulation expects Texas to control the line of scrimmage. In games shaped this way across AccuScore's history, the favored side won 93 of 100. For Arkansas to pull off the upset, it would need both its passing game and ground game to significantly outperform these projections while Texas stalls offensively.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | TEX | EV | ARK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -21 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -21 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.4% |
| Book | TEX | EV | ARK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1450 | -1.5% | +850 | -5.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1700 | -2.0% | +920 | -2.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1400 | -1.4% | +850 | -5.8% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -1236 | -1.0% | +756 | -10.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1649 | -1.9% | +770 | -9.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.6% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas 91% to beat Arkansas (9%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas the more likely winner at 91%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas a 91% chance of beating Arkansas, against 9% for Arkansas. Texas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Arkansas (3-6 so far) project to finish 4.5–7.5 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas (7-2 so far) project to finish 8.3–3.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 41% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Arkansas and Texas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Arkansas have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Texas have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2014: Arkansas 2, Texas 2. The last meeting, on Nov 22, 2025, finished Arkansas 37, Texas 52.
Arkansas are 39-19 as favourite and 22-75 as underdog, and 16-53 on the road (23% of 69 games, 2011–2026).
Texas are 77-30 as favourite and 21-41 as underdog, and 70-34 at home (67% of 104 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ARK | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 39-19 | 77-30 |
| As underdog | 22-75 | 21-41 |
| At home | 49-45 | 70-34 |
| On the road | 16-53 | 41-39 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →