#22Arizona
7-2
Kansas State
4-5
Win Probability
Arizona arrives in Manhattan as the clear favourite, and the simulation bears that out decisively. The Wildcats' offence will be anchored by Noah Fifita's projected 220 passing yards, with Isaiah Mizell expected to haul in 55 receiving yards as a primary target. Kansas State's path to an upset hinges on generating explosive plays—Rodney Fields Jr. is projected for just 50 rushing yards, and Dillon Duff for only 60 passing yards, a significant shortfall if the Wildcats' defence tightens up. AccuScore's model has favoured sides this strongly in 2,223 games, winning 76% of them. For Kansas State to pull the upset at home, the offence would need to operate far more efficiently than these projections suggest.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | KSU | EV | ARIZ | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +11.5 | -105 | +0.2% | -115 | -4.6% |
| Book | KSU | EV | ARIZ | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +360 | +1.3% | -465 | -2.8% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +373 | +2.7% | -490 | -3.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -2659 | -38.4% | -2659 | -9.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | +4.8% | -110 | -9.3% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona 78% to beat Kansas State (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kansas State a 22% chance of beating Arizona, against 78% for Arizona. Kansas State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Arizona (7-2 so far) project to finish 8.2–3.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kansas State (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.9–6.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 8.2–3.8 | 1% | 8% |
| Kansas State | 5.9–6.1 | 0% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Arizona and Kansas State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Arizona have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Kansas State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2024: Arizona 1, Kansas State 1. The last meeting, on Sep 11, 2025, finished Kansas State 17, Arizona 23.
Arizona are 47-19 as favourite and 22-65 as underdog, and 25-52 on the road (32% of 77 games, 2011–2026).
Kansas State are 62-17 as favourite and 30-51 as underdog, and 60-31 at home (66% of 91 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ARIZ | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 47-19 | 62-17 |
| As underdog | 22-65 | 30-51 |
| At home | 45-40 | 60-31 |
| On the road | 25-52 | 39-40 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →