#12BYU
7-2
Kansas
3-6
Win Probability
BYU travels to Kansas in a matchup that favors the Cougars clearly. Bear Bachmeier's projected 200 passing yards will need to translate into points, while Kansas quarterback Isaiah Marshall is expected to manage just 150 through the air—a gap that mirrors how this game turns on offensive efficiency. BYU's Legend Glasker projects for 50 receiving yards against a Kansas secondary that will task Cam Pickett to produce 35. In simulations shaped like this one, the favored side won 66% of the time across past games. For Kansas to pull off the upset at home, the Jayhawks would need to force turnovers and capitalize on short fields, since their passing attack figures to struggle against BYU's front.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | KU | EV | BYU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +7.5 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.2% |
| Book | KU | EV | BYU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +230 | +2.3% | -285 | -3.9% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +240 | +3.9% | -306 | -4.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -2105 | -33.4% | -2105 | -14.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 31.7%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes BYU 68% to beat Kansas (32%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes BYU the more likely winner at 68%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kansas a 32% chance of beating BYU, against 68% for BYU. Kansas are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
BYU (7-2 so far) project to finish 8.4–3.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kansas (3-6 so far) project to finish 5.4–6.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 57% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How BYU and Kansas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
BYU have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Kansas have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: BYU 0, Kansas 1. The last meeting, on Nov 15, 2024, finished Kansas 17, BYU 13.
BYU are 78-24 as favourite and 26-34 as underdog, and 49-39 on the road (56% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
Kansas are 8-11 as favourite and 16-117 as underdog, and 21-58 at home (27% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BYU | KU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 78-24 | 8-11 |
| As underdog | 26-34 | 16-117 |
| At home | 61-22 | 21-58 |
| On the road | 49-39 | 8-73 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →