NCAAF
Colorado
4-6
Cincinnati
5-4
Win Probability
Cincinnati hosts Colorado in a matchup where the simulation favors the Bearcats. Isaac Wilson's projected 180 passing yards for Colorado will need to stretch a Cincinnati defense that AccuScore expects to limit JC French IV to 200 through the air, a narrow margin that could determine field position and opportunity. Joseph Williams' receiving projection of 45 yards represents Colorado's best chance at explosive plays against a Bearcats secondary allowing Malachi Henry only 30 yards in the model's view. The game hinges on whether Colorado can establish consistent offensive rhythm; in 2,538 graded games where the simulation favored one side this clearly, that side won 66 percent of them. For the Buffaloes to pull the upset, they would need Wilson to exceed his projection significantly while Cincinnati's passing attack stalls.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | CIN | EV | COLO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -3.5 | +100 | +1.9% | -120 | -5.9% |
| Book | CIN | EV | COLO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -160 | +0.4% | +132 | -5.9% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -167 | -0.4% | +129 | -6.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -187 | -2.4% | +111 | -9.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 57.5 | -105 | -5.0% | -115 | +0.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati 62% to beat Colorado (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Cincinnati a 62% chance of beating Colorado, against 38% for Colorado. Cincinnati are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Colorado (4-6 so far) project to finish 6.0–6.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 53% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Cincinnati (5-4 so far) project to finish 5.7–6.3 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 6.0–6.0 | 0% | 53% |
| Cincinnati | 5.7–6.3 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Colorado and Cincinnati come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Colorado have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Cincinnati have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: Colorado 1, Cincinnati 0. The last meeting, on Oct 25, 2024, finished Cincinnati 23, Colorado 34.
Colorado are 25-9 as favourite and 22-98 as underdog, and 19-62 on the road (23% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
Cincinnati are 86-18 as favourite and 16-39 as underdog, and 59-24 at home (71% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | COLO | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 25-9 | 86-18 |
| As underdog | 22-98 | 16-39 |
| At home | 33-48 | 59-24 |
| On the road | 19-62 | 47-38 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →