Oklahoma State
6-3
Arizona State
5-4
Win Probability
Oklahoma State travels to face Arizona State in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the visiting Cowboys. The model projects a tight affair decided by offensive execution: Oklahoma State's attack will need to sustain its efficiency, while Arizona State must generate stops on the back end. AccuScore's lean toward Oklahoma State holds historical weight—in 2,538 games where the model favored one side this strongly, that side won 66% of the time. For Arizona State to pull the upset at home, its defense would need to force enough stalls to keep the game within reach in the final minutes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | ASU | EV | OKST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | +2.7% | -110 | -7.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | +2.7% | -110 | -7.2% |
| Book | ASU | EV | OKST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +172 | +3.4% | -210 | -5.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +185 | +6.0% | -225 | -6.2% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +166 | +2.3% | -191 | -3.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +143 | -2.3% | -204 | -4.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 65.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 65.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 39.3%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma State 61% to beat Arizona State (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oklahoma State the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arizona State a 39% chance of beating Oklahoma State, against 61% for Oklahoma State. Arizona State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Oklahoma State (6-3 so far) project to finish 7.3–4.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arizona State (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.0–6.0 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma State | 7.3–4.7 | <1% | 4% |
| Arizona State | 6.0–6.0 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Oklahoma State and Arizona State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oklahoma State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Arizona State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2022: Oklahoma State 1, Arizona State 1. The last meeting, on Nov 2, 2024, finished Arizona State 42, Oklahoma State 21.
Oklahoma State are 81-26 as favourite and 22-34 as underdog, and 45-37 on the road (55% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
Arizona State are 62-25 as favourite and 24-48 as underdog, and 63-28 at home (69% of 91 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | OKST | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 81-26 | 62-25 |
| As underdog | 22-34 | 24-48 |
| At home | 60-31 | 63-28 |
| On the road | 45-37 | 32-47 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →