#10Texas Tech
8-1
Baylor
6-3
Win Probability
Texas Tech travels to Baylor in a tight matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the Red Raiders. DJ Lagway will need to establish command of Baylor's passing game, with a projection of 200 yards that exceeds what Thomas Castellanos is expected to produce for Texas Tech at 110. The decisive factor is ground game efficiency: J'Koby Williams projects for 65 rushing yards against a Baylor defense where the home team's own rushing attack is fragmented across multiple backs, none projected above 45 yards. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 55% of the time across 2,700 historical matchups. Baylor would need to lean heavily on its receiving corps—where Gavin Freeman's 50-yard projection leads several contributors—to overcome the efficiency gap and steal a road result.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | BAY | EV | TTU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -115 | -2.5% | -105 | -1.9% |
| Book | BAY | EV | TTU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -108 | -4.4% | -112 | -0.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | -25.9% | -471 | -18.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 55.5 | -110 | +1.2% | -110 | -5.7% |
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Texas Tech (8-1 so far) project to finish 9.4–2.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 25% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Baylor (6-3 so far) project to finish 7.2–4.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | 9.4–2.6 | 6% | 25% |
| Baylor | 7.2–4.8 | <1% | 3% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Tech 53% to beat Baylor (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas Tech the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Baylor a 47% chance of beating Texas Tech, against 53% for Texas Tech. Baylor are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Texas Tech and Baylor come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas Tech have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Baylor have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Baylor are 73-23 as favourite and 24-40 as underdog, and 59-27 at home (69% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | — | 73-23 |
| As underdog | — | 24-40 |
| At home | — | 59-27 |
| On the road | — | 44-39 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →