NCAAF
#2Utah
9-0
TCU
4-5
Win Probability
Utah travels to Fort Worth as the clear favorite in the simulation's view. Devon Dampier projects to 180 passing yards for the Utes while TCU's Jaden Craig reaches 190, a marginal edge that masks Utah's overall superiority in the model's 50,000 runs. The decisive factor is Utah's rushing attack: Daniel Bray is projected for 45 yards against TCU's Amante Martin at 30, a gap that compounds across four quarters. In games where AccuScore's lean has been this pronounced, the favored side won 66 percent of 2,525 graded matchups. For TCU to pull the upset at home, the Horned Frogs would need their pass defense to collapse Utah's advantage on the ground.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | TCU | EV | UTAH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | -6.8% | -110 | +2.3% |
| Book | TCU | EV | UTAH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +170 | -7.7% | -205 | +1.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -33.9% | -5429 | -15.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 44.5 | -110 | -1.3% | -110 | -3.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 45.5 | -5429 | -25.2% | -5429 | -23.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Utah 69% to beat TCU (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives TCU a 31% chance of beating Utah, against 69% for Utah. TCU are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Utah (9-0 so far) project to finish 11.0–1.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
TCU (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.6–6.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Utah and TCU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Utah have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
TCU have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: Utah 0, TCU 1. The last meeting, on Oct 18, 2024, finished TCU 13, Utah 7.
Utah are 85-25 as favourite and 18-28 as underdog, and 51-35 on the road (59% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
TCU are 73-32 as favourite and 20-35 as underdog, and 54-34 at home (61% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UTAH | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 85-25 | 73-32 |
| As underdog | 18-28 | 20-35 |
| At home | 54-25 | 54-34 |
| On the road | 51-35 | 47-34 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →