Virginia Tech
6-3
#5Miami Hurricanes
8-1
Win Probability
Miami Hurricanes hosts Virginia Tech in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the home side. Darian Mensah's projected 230 passing yards will anchor Miami's attack, while Virginia Tech's Ethan Grunkemeyer is expected to manage just 190 yards through the air, a gap that reflects the gap in the two teams' trajectories. In games shaped like this one—where the model has leaned this heavily toward one side—the favored team won 93 percent of the time across 1,314 graded games. The Hurricanes' ability to control possession through the ground game, where Mark Fletcher Jr. projects for 80 rushing yards against Jeffrey Overton Jr.'s 50, will be the central lever. For Virginia Tech to pull off the upset, it would need Overton Jr. and the visiting offense to sustain drives in a way the numbers give little reason to expect.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | MIA | EV | VT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -18.5 | -110 | +4.7% | -110 | -9.2% |
| Book | MIA | EV | VT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1050 | +0.3% | +675 | -18.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -3.7% | -10969 | -45.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 61.5 | -110 | -0.1% | -110 | -4.5% |
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Virginia Tech (6-3 so far) project to finish 7.5–4.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Miami Hurricanes (8-1 so far) project to finish 10.7–1.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 92% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | 7.5–4.5 | 0% | 1% |
| Miami Hurricanes | 10.7–1.3 | 98% | 92% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Hurricanes 92% to beat Virginia Tech (8%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Hurricanes the more likely winner at 92%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Miami Hurricanes a 92% chance of beating Virginia Tech, against 8% for Virginia Tech. Miami Hurricanes are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Virginia Tech and Miami Hurricanes come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Virginia Tech have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Miami Hurricanes have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2011: Virginia Tech 4, Miami Hurricanes 10. The last meeting, on Nov 22, 2025, finished Miami Hurricanes 34, Virginia Tech 17.
Virginia Tech are 62-40 as favourite and 22-40 as underdog, and 42-42 on the road (50% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
Miami Hurricanes are 79-33 as favourite and 19-31 as underdog, and 58-26 at home (69% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | VT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 62-40 | 79-33 |
| As underdog | 22-40 | 19-31 |
| At home | 45-42 | 58-26 |
| On the road | 42-42 | 45-41 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →