NCAAF
NC State
4-5
Florida State
5-5
Win Probability
NC State travels to face Florida State in a game where the simulation decisively favors the Seminoles. AccuScore's 50,000 simulations show Florida State winning at a rate that historical precedent supports: in similar matchups across other teams, the favored side has won 7 of 8 games. The contest hinges on offensive execution—NC State's projection of 24.9 points sits below the 33.9 that Florida State is expected to score, a gap wide enough to decide most outcomes. For NC State to pull the upset, it would need to generate significantly more scoring than the model forecasts while holding Florida State well below its projected total.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | FSU | EV | NCSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -9 | -110 | -2.2% | -110 | -2.2% |
| Book | FSU | EV | NCSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -315 | -2.1% | +255 | -1.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -330 | -2.6% | +260 | -0.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -396 | -4.5% | +233 | -4.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 56.5 | -115 | -1.9% | -105 | -2.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 57 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.5% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State 73% to beat NC State (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida State a 73% chance of beating NC State, against 27% for NC State. Florida State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
NC State (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.0–7.0 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida State (5-5 so far) project to finish 6.3–5.7 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 5.0–7.0 | 0% | <1% |
| Florida State | 6.3–5.7 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How NC State and Florida State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
NC State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Florida State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: NC State 7, Florida State 6. The last meeting, on Nov 20, 2025, finished Florida State 11, NC State 21.
NC State are 65-19 as favourite and 20-56 as underdog, and 31-47 on the road (40% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
Florida State are 85-27 as favourite and 12-39 as underdog, and 59-31 at home (66% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NCSU | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 65-19 | 85-27 |
| As underdog | 20-56 | 12-39 |
| At home | 57-33 | 59-31 |
| On the road | 31-47 | 39-40 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →