Pittsburgh
6-4
Louisville
6-3
Win Probability
Pittsburgh travels to Louisville in a matchup where the simulation leans decisively toward the home side. Across eight prior games shaped identically to this one, the favoured team won seven times. Louisville's offence will need to sustain drives; Pittsburgh's defence must generate pressure early to stay in range. The Cardinals project to score 33, the Panthers 22—a gap that hinges on whether Pittsburgh can force turnovers and limit big plays. For the visitors to pull the upset, their defence would have to hold Louisville well below its simulation projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | LOU | EV | PITT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -12.5 | -110 | -4.3% | -110 | -0.3% |
| Book | LOU | EV | PITT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -490 | -2.6% | +375 | +0.3% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -322 | +1.6% | +296 | -8.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1736 | -8.3% | -3582 | -39.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.9% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 78.8%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville 79% to beat Pittsburgh (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville the more likely winner at 79%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Louisville a 79% chance of beating Pittsburgh, against 21% for Pittsburgh. Louisville are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Pittsburgh (6-4 so far) project to finish 7.1–4.9 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Louisville (6-3 so far) project to finish 7.5–4.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | 7.1–4.9 | 0% | <1% |
| Louisville | 7.5–4.5 | <1% | 4% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Pittsburgh and Louisville come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Pittsburgh have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Louisville have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 7 times since 2011: Pittsburgh 2, Louisville 5. The last meeting, on Sep 27, 2025, finished Louisville 34, Pittsburgh 27.
Pittsburgh are 61-28 as favourite and 26-48 as underdog, and 40-43 on the road (48% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
Louisville are 78-30 as favourite and 17-40 as underdog, and 54-33 at home (62% of 87 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | PITT | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 61-28 | 78-30 |
| As underdog | 26-48 | 17-40 |
| At home | 49-40 | 54-33 |
| On the road | 40-43 | 47-39 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →