Stanford
4-5
California
3-6
Win Probability
Stanford travels to face California in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visiting Cardinal. The game hinges on whether either offense can consistently move the ball, with both teams' scoring projections clustered in the high 20s. In games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 55% of the time across 2,712 graded contests. California would need to hold Stanford well below its projected output to pull off the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | CAL | EV | STAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +3.5 | -120 | -2.6% | +100 | -1.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +3 | -105 | -1.8% | -115 | -2.5% |
| Book | CAL | EV | STAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +126 | -2.9% | -150 | -1.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +135 | -1.0% | -160 | -2.6% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +124 | -3.3% | -155 | -2.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +116 | -5.0% | -164 | -3.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 55.5 | +100 | -1.4% | -120 | -2.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 55 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.1% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Stanford 58% to beat California (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Stanford the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives California a 42% chance of beating Stanford, against 58% for Stanford. California are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Stanford (4-5 so far) project to finish 4.8–7.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
California (3-6 so far) project to finish 4.1–7.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford | 4.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% |
| California | 4.1–7.9 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Stanford and California come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Stanford have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
California have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Stanford 8, California 4. The last meeting, on Nov 23, 2024, finished Stanford 21, California 24.
Stanford are 77-21 as favourite and 22-46 as underdog, and 41-45 on the road (48% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
California are 30-15 as favourite and 29-74 as underdog, and 36-40 at home (47% of 76 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 77-21 | 30-15 |
| As underdog | 22-46 | 29-74 |
| At home | 59-29 | 36-40 |
| On the road | 41-45 | 26-56 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →