#4UCLA
9-0
Michigan
5-4
Win Probability
UCLA travels to Michigan as a clear favourite in this matchup. The simulation leans strongly toward the Bruins, who project to win despite playing on the road. Ty Dieffenbach's passing game anchors UCLA's attack at 160 projected yards, while Michigan's Tommy Carr is expected to manage just 130 through the air—a gap that mirrors how the model sees this game unfolding. In similar win-probability shapes across eight prior games, the favoured side won five times. For Michigan to pull the upset at home, the Wolverines would need their ground game, led by Savion Hiter's 40 projected rushing yards, to establish control and keep UCLA's offence off the field.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | MICH | EV | UCLA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +5.5 | -135 | -5.2% | -5429 | -25.3% |
| Book | MICH | EV | UCLA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +180 | +0.5% | -218 | -3.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -215 | -23.6% | -812 | -14.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 41.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -1.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 43.5 | -5429 | -27.4% | -5429 | -21.6% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes UCLA 64% to beat Michigan (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UCLA the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Michigan a 36% chance of beating UCLA, against 64% for UCLA. Michigan are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
UCLA (9-0 so far) project to finish 10.9–1.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 72% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Michigan (5-4 so far) project to finish 5.9–6.1 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UCLA and Michigan come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UCLA have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Michigan have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
UCLA are 68-24 as favourite and 22-52 as underdog, and 40-42 on the road (49% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
Michigan are 112-19 as favourite and 9-34 as underdog, and 86-20 at home (81% of 106 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UCLA | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 68-24 | 112-19 |
| As underdog | 22-52 | 9-34 |
| At home | 54-37 | 86-20 |
| On the road | 40-42 | 39-37 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →