Northwestern
6-3
Minnesota
5-4
Win Probability
Northwestern travels to Minnesota as the simulation's clear favorite. The Wildcats' ground game will be central to their chances, with Caleb Komolafe projected for 65 rushing yards, while the Golden Gophers will lean heavily on Drake Lindsey's arm—he's expected to reach 190 passing yards. Minnesota's path to an upset runs through Darius Taylor and the running game, though he's only projected for 40 yards in what shapes up as a pass-first evening for the home side. In games where the model has favored one side this strongly, that side won 66 percent of the time across 2,538 graded contests. The Gophers would need to establish the run and limit Northwestern's efficiency on third down to pull off the surprise.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MINN | EV | NU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +114 | -9.2% | -143 | +2.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +103 | -11.3% | -158 | +0.5% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Northwestern 62% to beat Minnesota (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Northwestern the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Minnesota a 38% chance of beating Northwestern, against 62% for Northwestern. Minnesota are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Northwestern (6-3 so far) project to finish 7.1–4.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Minnesota (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.2–5.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 7.1–4.9 | 0% | 1% |
| Minnesota | 6.2–5.8 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Northwestern and Minnesota come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Northwestern have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Minnesota have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Northwestern 6, Minnesota 6. The last meeting, on Nov 22, 2025, finished Minnesota 35, Northwestern 38.
Northwestern are 46-18 as favourite and 32-61 as underdog, and 36-39 on the road (48% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
Minnesota are 56-14 as favourite and 34-60 as underdog, and 61-33 at home (65% of 94 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 46-18 | 56-14 |
| As underdog | 32-61 | 34-60 |
| At home | 44-46 | 61-33 |
| On the road | 36-39 | 34-43 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →