NCAAF
#21Ohio State
6-3
Nebraska
5-4
Win Probability
Ohio State travels to Nebraska as the favored side in AccuScore's simulation. Anthony Colandrea projects for 170 passing yards for the home team, while Ohio State's Bo Jackson is expected to rush for 60 yards—a gap that points to Nebraska's offensive burden in a close game where both teams' production matters equally. The simulation leans toward Ohio State, though not decisively. In games with win probabilities shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 66% of 2,525 graded matchups. Nebraska would need to exceed its passing projection and establish the run to keep pace.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | NEB | EV | OSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +5.5 | -10969 | -25.4% | -10969 | -24.1% |
| Book | NEB | EV | OSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +164 | -3.9% | -198 | -1.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -236 | -25.2% | -5429 | -16.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 49.5 | -5429 | -26.5% | -5429 | -22.6% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio State 65% to beat Nebraska (35%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio State the more likely winner at 65%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Nebraska a 35% chance of beating Ohio State, against 65% for Ohio State. Nebraska are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Ohio State (6-3 so far) project to finish 8.1–3.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Nebraska (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.7–5.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 8.1–3.9 | 1% | 19% |
| Nebraska | 6.7–5.3 | 0% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Ohio State and Nebraska come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Ohio State have won 3 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Nebraska have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 9 times since 2011: Ohio State 8, Nebraska 1. The last meeting, on Oct 26, 2024, finished Nebraska 17, Ohio State 21.
Ohio State are 139-17 as favourite and 9-6 as underdog, and 60-13 on the road (82% of 73 games, 2011–2026).
Nebraska are 66-28 as favourite and 11-53 as underdog, and 52-38 at home (58% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | OSU | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 139-17 | 66-28 |
| As underdog | 9-6 | 11-53 |
| At home | 99-13 | 52-38 |
| On the road | 60-13 | 29-48 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →