Rutgers
2-7
Penn State
5-4
Win Probability
Penn State hosts Rutgers in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Rocco Becht's projected 200 passing yards anchor Penn State's attack, while Rutgers' AJ Surace is expected to manage just 120 through the air—a 67-yard gap that reflects the difference in offensive firepower. The game hinges on whether Rutgers can establish any ground game; Antwan Raymond's projected 55 rushing yards would represent the visitors' best chance to stay competitive. AccuScore's model has favored sides this strongly in 1,316 graded games, winning 93 percent of them. For Rutgers to pull the upset, it would need to generate offensive production well beyond these projections while forcing turnovers.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | PSU | EV | RUTG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -1429 | -0.4% | +1074 | -7.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1649 | -0.8% | +963 | -11.7% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State 93% to beat Rutgers (7%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Penn State the more likely winner at 93%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Penn State a 93% chance of beating Rutgers, against 7% for Rutgers. Penn State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Rutgers (2-7 so far) project to finish 3.5–8.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Penn State (5-4 so far) project to finish 5.8–6.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers | 3.5–8.5 | 0% | 2% |
| Penn State | 5.8–6.2 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Rutgers and Penn State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Rutgers have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Penn State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 9 times since 2014: Rutgers 0, Penn State 9. The last meeting, on Nov 29, 2025, finished Penn State 40, Rutgers 36.
Rutgers are 31-14 as favourite and 21-88 as underdog, and 26-54 on the road (33% of 80 games, 2011–2026).
Penn State are 94-26 as favourite and 13-35 as underdog, and 73-28 at home (72% of 101 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | RUTG | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 31-14 | 94-26 |
| As underdog | 21-88 | 13-35 |
| At home | 29-54 | 73-28 |
| On the road | 26-54 | 44-35 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →