Wisconsin
6-3
Purdue
3-6
Win Probability
Wisconsin travels to face Purdue with the simulation favoring the Badgers clearly. Ryan Browne's projected 180 passing yards anchors Purdue's offense, but Wisconsin's defense projects to limit that output substantially. The game hinges on Wisconsin's passing game: Ryan Hopkins is projected for only 110 yards, a significant constraint that keeps this close despite the Badgers' overall advantage. On similar games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side has won 66% of the time across 2,538 graded matchups. Purdue would need to exceed its offensive projections considerably while slowing Wisconsin's ground attack to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | PUR | EV | WIS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +166 | -1.1% | -200 | -2.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +143 | -5.3% | -214 | -3.6% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin 63% to beat Purdue (37%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin the more likely winner at 63%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Purdue a 37% chance of beating Wisconsin, against 63% for Wisconsin. Purdue are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Wisconsin (6-3 so far) project to finish 7.8–4.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Purdue (3-6 so far) project to finish 3.7–8.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Wisconsin and Purdue come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Wisconsin have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Purdue have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Wisconsin 12, Purdue 0. The last meeting, on Oct 5, 2024, finished Purdue 6, Wisconsin 52.
Wisconsin are 98-31 as favourite and 14-25 as underdog, and 43-36 on the road (54% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
Purdue are 29-20 as favourite and 26-84 as underdog, and 34-55 at home (38% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WIS | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 98-31 | 29-20 |
| As underdog | 14-25 | 26-84 |
| At home | 74-25 | 34-55 |
| On the road | 43-36 | 21-56 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →