Maryland
3-6
#15USC
7-2
Win Probability
Maryland travels to face USC in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Trojans. Jayden Maiava projects for 220 passing yards in USC's offense, while Maryland's Malik Washington is expected to manage only 160—a gap that reflects the disparity in offensive firepower. King Miller's projected 80 rushing yards against DeJuan Williams's 40 underscores the same theme on the ground. AccuScore's model has favored sides this strongly in 1,786 graded games and won 86% of them, a record that speaks to how lopsided the numbers make this matchup. For Maryland to pull off the upset, it would need to generate substantially more offensive production than the simulation projects while keeping USC's attack bottled up.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | USC | EV | MD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -660 | +1.0% | +490 | -16.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -851 | -0.5% | +406 | -21.2% |
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Maryland (3-6 so far) project to finish 5.2–6.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
USC (7-2 so far) project to finish 7.7–4.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes USC 89% to beat Maryland (11%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes USC the more likely winner at 89%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives USC a 89% chance of beating Maryland, against 11% for Maryland. USC are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Maryland and USC come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Maryland have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
USC have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: Maryland 1, USC 0. The last meeting, on Oct 19, 2024, finished USC 28, Maryland 29.
Maryland are 35-21 as favourite and 20-74 as underdog, and 25-50 on the road (33% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
USC are 98-25 as favourite and 10-33 as underdog, and 72-24 at home (75% of 96 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MD | USC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 35-21 | 98-25 |
| As underdog | 20-74 | 10-33 |
| At home | 31-52 | 72-24 |
| On the road | 25-50 | 44-40 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →