#6Indiana Hoosiers
8-1
Washington
5-4
Win Probability
Indiana Hoosiers travel to Washington as decisive favorites in AccuScore's simulation. The model's lean hinges on offensive efficiency: Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. projects for 65 rushing yards while Washington's Demond Williams Jr. is expected to manage only 140 passing yards, a gap that tilts field position and time of possession sharply in the visitor's favor. On similar win-probability shapes across eight other matchups, the favored side won six times. For Washington to upset the projection, the Huskies would need their passing game to significantly outpace those modest expectations and their defense to limit Indiana's ground attack well below forecast.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | WASH | EV | IU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +7.5 | -115 | -5.1% | -105 | +0.8% |
| Book | WASH | EV | IU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +225 | -2.1% | -278 | -2.1% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +208 | -4.6% | -290 | -2.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1120 | -33.9% | -897 | -10.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 43.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.1% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana Hoosiers 71% to beat Washington (30%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Indiana Hoosiers the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Washington a 30% chance of beating Indiana Hoosiers, against 71% for Indiana Hoosiers. Washington are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Indiana Hoosiers (8-1 so far) project to finish 10.4–1.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 81% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Washington (5-4 so far) project to finish 6.0–6.0 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Hoosiers | 10.4–1.6 | 34% | 81% |
| Washington | 6.0–6.0 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Indiana Hoosiers and Washington come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Indiana Hoosiers have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Washington have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: Indiana Hoosiers 1, Washington 0. The last meeting, on Oct 26, 2024, finished Washington 17, Indiana Hoosiers 31.
Indiana Hoosiers are 61-14 as favourite and 10-73 as underdog, and 32-47 on the road (41% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
Washington are 85-24 as favourite and 13-39 as underdog, and 64-26 at home (71% of 90 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | IU | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 61-14 | 85-24 |
| As underdog | 10-73 | 13-39 |
| At home | 44-42 | 64-26 |
| On the road | 32-47 | 36-42 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →