NCAAF
Charlotte
1-9
Tulsa
6-4
Win Probability
Charlotte travels to Tulsa as a significant underdog in this matchup. The simulation strongly favors the Golden Hurricane, with Baylor Hayes projected to orchestrate the home offense through the air with 210 passing yards while Damari Alston contributes 70 rushing yards on the ground. Charlotte's Conner Harrell will have his hands full, projected for just 160 passing yards in a game that hinges on whether Tulsa's ground game can establish early control. In similar win-probability shapes across eight other past games, the favored side won all eight matchups. For Charlotte to pull the upset, it would need to force Tulsa into significant offensive inefficiency—something the model suggests is unlikely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | TLSA | EV | CLT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -19.5 | -110 | -1.6% | -110 | -3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -17.5 | -110 | +3.5% | -110 | -8.1% |
| Book | TLSA | EV | CLT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1000 | -0.1% | +650 | -15.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1000 | -0.1% | +660 | -15.0% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -1087 | -0.4% | +841 | -6.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1399 | -1.4% | +698 | -13.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | +1.0% | -110 | -5.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | -1.5% | -110 | -3.1% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Tulsa 91% to beat Charlotte (9%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tulsa the more likely winner at 91%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tulsa a 91% chance of beating Charlotte, against 9% for Charlotte. Tulsa are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Charlotte (1-9 so far) project to finish 1.2–10.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tulsa (6-4 so far) project to finish 7.6–4.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Charlotte and Tulsa come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Charlotte have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Tulsa have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Charlotte are 7-3 as favourite and 20-73 as underdog, and 13-46 on the road (22% of 59 games, 2015–2026).
Tulsa are 53-22 as favourite and 16-71 as underdog, and 42-39 at home (52% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CLT | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 7-3 | 53-22 |
| As underdog | 20-73 | 16-71 |
| At home | 16-35 | 42-39 |
| On the road | 13-46 | 28-59 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →