NCAAF
South Florida
6-4
Florida Atlantic
6-4
Win Probability
This is a coin-flip between South Florida and Florida Atlantic, with the simulation barely favoring the home side. Caden Veltkamp projects for 240 passing yards for Florida Atlantic, while South Florida's Luke Kromenhoek is expected to manage just 170—a gap that will define how each offense moves the ball. The game turns on whether FAU can sustain that advantage; across similar win-probability matchups, AccuScore's favored side won 55% of 2,716 graded games. For South Florida to pull the upset, Bryson Rodgers and the receiving corps will need to generate explosive plays that offset the projected passing disparity.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | FAU | EV | USF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -115 | -6.1% | -105 | +1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1.5 | +100 | -8.5% | -120 | +3.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1.5 | -5429 | -28.9% | -5429 | -20.2% |
| Book | FAU | EV | USF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -110 | -7.9% | -110 | +3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -111 | -8.1% | -108 | +3.8% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -112 | -8.3% | -112 | +2.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -128 | -10.7% | -119 | +1.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 68.5 | -118 | -4.4% | -102 | +0.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 69.5 | -110 | -5.5% | -110 | +1.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 55.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes South Florida 56% to beat Florida Atlantic (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Florida the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida Atlantic a 44% chance of beating South Florida, against 56% for South Florida. Florida Atlantic are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
South Florida (6-4 so far) project to finish 7.1–4.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida Atlantic (6-4 so far) project to finish 7.4–4.6 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 7.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% |
| Florida Atlantic | 7.4–4.6 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How South Florida and Florida Atlantic come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
South Florida have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Florida Atlantic have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2013: South Florida 2, Florida Atlantic 1. The last meeting, on Oct 18, 2025, finished Florida Atlantic 13, South Florida 48.
South Florida are 47-19 as favourite and 13-75 as underdog, and 32-50 on the road (39% of 82 games, 2011–2026).
Florida Atlantic are 45-22 as favourite and 18-69 as underdog, and 41-35 at home (54% of 76 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | USF | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 47-19 | 45-22 |
| As underdog | 13-75 | 18-69 |
| At home | 33-47 | 41-35 |
| On the road | 32-50 | 23-65 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →