NCAAF
UTSA
8-2
UAB
6-4
Win Probability
When UTSA travels to face UAB, the simulation clearly favors the Roadrunners, projecting Owen McCown to orchestrate the offense with 190 passing yards while Will Henderson III contributes 60 on the ground. The Blazers' Ryder Burton will have less to work with at 170 passing yards, and the game hinges on whether UAB can establish Rod Robinson II as a consistent force—he's projected for just 60 rushing yards in a matchup where ground game efficiency separates the teams. In games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won seven of eight. For the home team to pull the upset, they would need to exceed their passing projection significantly while containing UTSA's balanced attack.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | UAB | EV | UTSA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +6.5 | -115 | -1.8% | -105 | -2.7% |
| Book | UAB | EV | UTSA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +180 | -2.4% | -218 | -1.9% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +189 | -0.9% | -250 | -3.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +169 | -4.3% | -270 | -4.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | -3.1% | -110 | -1.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes UTSA 66% to beat UAB (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UTSA the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UAB a 34% chance of beating UTSA, against 66% for UTSA. UAB are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
UTSA (8-2 so far) project to finish 9.1–2.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UAB (6-4 so far) project to finish 6.5–5.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UTSA and UAB come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UTSA have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
UAB have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 7 times since 2013: UTSA 3, UAB 4. The last meeting, on Nov 5, 2022, finished UTSA 44, UAB 38.
UTSA are 49-18 as favourite and 23-58 as underdog, and 34-48 on the road (41% of 82 games, 2012–2026).
UAB are 34-21 as favourite and 21-55 as underdog, and 36-25 at home (59% of 61 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UTSA | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 49-18 | 34-21 |
| As underdog | 23-58 | 21-55 |
| At home | 44-31 | 36-25 |
| On the road | 34-48 | 22-57 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →