Hawai'i
3-7
Nevada
4-6
Win Probability
Nevada hosts Hawai'i in a matchup where the simulation leans toward the home side. Hawai'i's Micah Alejado is projected for 190 passing yards, while Nevada's AJ Bianco comes in at just 130—a gap that encapsulates the game's central dynamic. Herschel Turner's projected 55 rushing yards for Nevada suggests the Wolf Pack will control tempo on the ground, and if Hawai'i's Cam Barfield cannot match that pace with his projected 40 yards, the Rainbow Warriors will struggle to keep pace. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favoured side won 55% of the time across a large sample. For Hawai'i to pull the upset, it would need to generate significantly more offensive efficiency than these projections suggest.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NEV | EV | HAW | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -208 | -4.8% | +146 | -2.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -235 | -6.5% | +103 | -10.5% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Nevada 61% to beat Hawai'i (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Nevada the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Nevada a 61% chance of beating Hawai'i, against 39% for Hawai'i. Nevada are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Nevada (4-6 so far) project to finish 4.8–7.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 4.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Hawai'i and Nevada come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Hawai'i have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Nevada have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2011: Hawai'i 4, Nevada 8. The last meeting, on Oct 25, 2024, finished Nevada 13, Hawai'i 34.
Hawai'i are 28-13 as favourite and 23-86 as underdog, and 22-62 on the road (26% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
Nevada are 46-18 as favourite and 23-69 as underdog, and 38-35 at home (52% of 73 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | HAW | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 28-13 | 46-18 |
| As underdog | 23-86 | 23-69 |
| At home | 34-46 | 38-35 |
| On the road | 22-62 | 32-58 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →