NCAAF
UL Monroe
2-8
App State
6-4
Win Probability
UL Monroe travels to App State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Across games shaped this way, the favored team won 86% of the time. App State's defense will be tested by UL Monroe's passing attack, but the Mountaineers' own aerial approach—anchored by their quarterback's efficiency—should prove more difficult to contain. The game hinges on whether UL Monroe can stay competitive in third-down conversion rate; fall behind early and the visitors' thin record suggests a difficult comeback. For the Warhawks to pull off the upset, they would need an unusual defensive performance and significant efficiency advantages that the model does not project.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | APP | EV | ULM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -13.5 | -110 | -1.3% | -110 | -3.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -13.5 | -115 | -2.3% | -105 | -2.2% |
| Book | APP | EV | ULM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -575 | -1.7% | +425 | -3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -630 | -2.3% | +460 | -0.4% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -719 | -3.1% | +530 | +5.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -851 | -4.0% | +434 | -2.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes App State 82% to beat UL Monroe (18%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes App State the more likely winner at 82%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives App State a 82% chance of beating UL Monroe, against 18% for UL Monroe. App State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UL Monroe (2-8 so far) project to finish 2.5–9.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
App State (6-4 so far) project to finish 7.2–4.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UL Monroe and App State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UL Monroe have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
App State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 7 times since 2014: UL Monroe 1, App State 6. The last meeting, on Oct 30, 2021, finished UL Monroe 28, App State 59.
UL Monroe are 23-16 as favourite and 27-86 as underdog, and 25-72 on the road (26% of 97 games, 2011–2026).
App State are 68-21 as favourite and 13-19 as underdog, and 45-15 at home (75% of 60 games, 2014–2026).
| Record | ULM | APP |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 23-16 | 68-21 |
| As underdog | 27-86 | 13-19 |
| At home | 26-38 | 45-15 |
| On the road | 25-72 | 40-28 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →