NCAAF
Coastal Carolina
4-6
Louisiana
7-3
Win Probability
Coastal Carolina travels to face Louisiana in a matchup where the host holds a decisive advantage. AccuScore's 50,000 simulations favor the Ragin' Cajuns strongly, a conviction backed by historical performance: in similar games over the past two seasons, the favored side won 76 percent of the time. The game hinges on whether Coastal Carolina can generate enough offense to keep pace—the model projects a relatively low combined score, suggesting defensive control will matter more than firepower. For the Chanticleers to pull the upset, they would need to significantly outperform their projection and force Louisiana into uncharacteristic mistakes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | UL | EV | CCU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.6% |
| Book | UL | EV | CCU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -278 | -1.7% | +225 | -3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -330 | -3.7% | +265 | +2.7% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -322 | -3.4% | +252 | +0.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -352 | -4.4% | +222 | -3.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 28.9%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana 71% to beat Coastal Carolina (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Louisiana a 71% chance of beating Coastal Carolina, against 29% for Coastal Carolina. Louisiana are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Coastal Carolina (4-6 so far) project to finish 4.2–7.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Louisiana (7-3 so far) project to finish 8.6–3.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina | 4.2–7.8 | 0% | 0% |
| Louisiana | 8.6–3.4 | 0% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Coastal Carolina and Louisiana come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Coastal Carolina have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Louisiana have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2018: Coastal Carolina 1, Louisiana 3. The last meeting, on Oct 19, 2024, finished Louisiana 34, Coastal Carolina 24.
Coastal Carolina are 27-8 as favourite and 14-23 as underdog, and 19-22 on the road (46% of 41 games, 2018–2026).
Louisiana are 64-20 as favourite and 32-44 as underdog, and 53-24 at home (69% of 77 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CCU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 27-8 | 64-20 |
| As underdog | 14-23 | 32-44 |
| At home | 24-18 | 53-24 |
| On the road | 19-22 | 49-44 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →