NCAAF
Georgia Southern
6-4
Troy
4-6
Win Probability
Georgia Southern travels to Troy as a decisive favourite in this matchup. Max Johnson's projected 180 passing yards will anchor the Eagles' attack, while Troy's Goose Crowder is expected to manage just 120 through the air, a gap that reflects the simulation's confidence in the visiting offence. The game hinges on Georgia Southern's ability to establish the run: David Mbadinga's modest 45 projected rushing yards suggests Troy's defence can contain that element, and if the Trojans can force Johnson into longer passing situations, they create opportunities to keep the game close. On similar win-probability shapes across eight prior games, AccuScore's favoured side won seven of them. Troy would need to exceed expectations defensively and limit big plays to stay in contention.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | TROY | EV | GASO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +8.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.5% |
| Book | TROY | EV | GASO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +260 | +3.5% | -325 | -4.0% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +266 | +4.4% | -340 | -4.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +245 | +1.2% | -373 | -5.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | -1.8% | -110 | -2.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 29.7%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia Southern 70% to beat Troy (30%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia Southern the more likely winner at 70%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Troy a 30% chance of beating Georgia Southern, against 70% for Georgia Southern. Troy are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Georgia Southern (6-4 so far) project to finish 7.2–4.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Troy (4-6 so far) project to finish 4.7–7.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Southern | 7.2–4.8 | 44% | <1% |
| Troy | 4.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Georgia Southern and Troy come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Georgia Southern have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Troy have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 9 times since 2014: Georgia Southern 4, Troy 5. The last meeting, on Nov 16, 2024, finished Troy 28, Georgia Southern 20.
Georgia Southern are 40-9 as favourite and 19-48 as underdog, and 33-41 on the road (45% of 74 games, 2014–2026).
Troy are 53-25 as favourite and 19-59 as underdog, and 41-32 at home (56% of 73 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | GASO | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 40-9 | 53-25 |
| As underdog | 19-48 | 19-59 |
| At home | 32-21 | 41-32 |
| On the road | 33-41 | 35-55 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →