NCAAF
Georgia State
5-5
Marshall
5-5
Win Probability
Georgia State travels to Marshall for a matchup between two evenly matched 5-5 teams, with the simulation favoring the visiting Panthers slightly. The game hinges on Marshall's passing attack: Carlos Del RioWilson is projected for just 120 yards, while Georgia State's Ayden Pereira is expected to exceed 160, a gap that could prove decisive in a close contest. Lanear McCrary Jr. anchors Georgia State's ground game with 55 projected rushing yards. Across eight similar games in AccuScore's historical record, the favored side won 50% of the time. For Marshall to prevail at home, the Thundering Herd would need to sharply outperform their passing projections and limit Georgia State's offensive efficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | MRSH | EV | GAST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -110 | -6.1% | -110 | +1.5% |
| Book | MRSH | EV | GAST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -102 | -7.2% | -118 | +2.5% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -112 | -9.1% | -116 | +2.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -123 | -10.8% | -128 | +0.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 57.5 | -110 | +0.0% | -110 | -4.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 56.8%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia State 57% to beat Marshall (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia State the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Marshall a 43% chance of beating Georgia State, against 57% for Georgia State. Marshall are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Georgia State (5-5 so far) project to finish 5.8–6.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Marshall (5-5 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia State | 5.8–6.2 | 0% | 0% |
| Marshall | 6.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Georgia State and Marshall come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Georgia State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Marshall have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2024: Georgia State 0, Marshall 2. The last meeting, on Nov 15, 2025, finished Marshall 30, Georgia State 18.
Georgia State are 22-11 as favourite and 20-76 as underdog, and 20-52 on the road (28% of 72 games, 2013–2026).
Marshall are 72-29 as favourite and 17-38 as underdog, and 53-25 at home (68% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | GAST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 22-11 | 72-29 |
| As underdog | 20-76 | 17-38 |
| At home | 23-42 | 53-25 |
| On the road | 20-52 | 45-45 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →