Western Kentucky
4-6
Liberty
9-1
Win Probability
Liberty hosts Western Kentucky in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Deshawn Purdie's projected 160 passing yards and Kam Davis's 75 rushing yards anchor Liberty's attack, while the Hilltoppers' Rodney Tisdale Jr. is projected for just 100 yards through the air. The outcome hinges on whether Western Kentucky can generate enough offensive production to stay competitive; the model projects Liberty to outscore them by 18 points. AccuScore's simulation has favored one side this strongly in 1,786 graded games, and that side won 86 percent of them. For Western Kentucky to pull off an upset, Ajay Allen would need to exceed his 45-yard rushing projection significantly and the Hilltoppers' defense would need to limit Liberty's ground game well below its 75-yard expectation.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | LIB | EV | WKU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | +2.3% | -110 | -6.8% |
| Book | LIB | EV | WKU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -670 | -0.3% | +490 | -10.2% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -719 | -0.7% | +625 | -1.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -851 | -1.7% | +540 | -6.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.2% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Liberty 87% to beat Western Kentucky (14%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Liberty the more likely winner at 87%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Liberty a 87% chance of beating Western Kentucky, against 14% for Western Kentucky. Liberty are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Western Kentucky (4-6 so far) project to finish 4.7–7.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Liberty (9-1 so far) project to finish 10.5–1.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky | 4.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% |
| Liberty | 10.5–1.5 | 98% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Western Kentucky and Liberty come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Western Kentucky have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Liberty have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2020: Western Kentucky 0, Liberty 2. The last meeting, on Nov 23, 2024, finished Western Kentucky 21, Liberty 38.
Western Kentucky are 68-29 as favourite and 27-40 as underdog, and 48-47 on the road (51% of 95 games, 2011–2026).
Liberty are 31-12 as favourite and 9-12 as underdog, and 24-8 at home (75% of 32 games, 2018–2026).
| Record | WKU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 68-29 | 31-12 |
| As underdog | 27-40 | 9-12 |
| At home | 50-26 | 24-8 |
| On the road | 48-47 | 21-18 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →