NCAAF
South Alabama
5-5
Southern Miss
3-7
Win Probability
Southern Miss hosts South Alabama in a matchup where the simulation favors the visiting Jaguars. Bishop Davenport's projected 90 passing yards for South Alabama against John White's 90 for Southern Miss suggests neither offense will generate substantial volume, making efficiency the decisive factor. PJ Martin's 65 rushing yards for the Jaguars and Steven Robinson's matching projection for the Eagles point to a ground-dominated contest where field position and execution in the red zone determine the winner. AccuScore's model has won 66 percent of 2,539 games shaped like this one. Southern Miss would need to force South Alabama into low-efficiency possessions while converting its own limited offensive opportunities at a high rate.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | USM | EV | USA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +5.5 | -110 | -0.8% | -110 | -3.7% |
| Book | USM | EV | USA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +160 | -2.8% | -192 | -1.6% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +159 | -3.0% | -218 | -3.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +148 | -5.0% | -235 | -4.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 62.5 | -110 | +7.4% | -110 | -11.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes South Alabama 64% to beat Southern Miss (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Alabama the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Southern Miss a 36% chance of beating South Alabama, against 64% for South Alabama. Southern Miss are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
South Alabama (5-5 so far) project to finish 6.3–5.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Southern Miss (3-7 so far) project to finish 3.6–8.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama | 6.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% |
| Southern Miss | 3.6–8.4 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How South Alabama and Southern Miss come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
South Alabama have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
Southern Miss have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2020: South Alabama 5, Southern Miss 0. The last meeting, on Nov 22, 2025, finished Southern Miss 35, South Alabama 42.
South Alabama are 32-22 as favourite and 14-75 as underdog, and 21-62 on the road (25% of 83 games, 2012–2026).
Southern Miss are 39-24 as favourite and 19-67 as underdog, and 28-44 at home (39% of 72 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | USA | USM |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 32-22 | 39-24 |
| As underdog | 14-75 | 19-67 |
| At home | 30-38 | 28-44 |
| On the road | 21-62 | 30-55 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →