Clemson
6-3
Duke
7-2
Win Probability
Clemson travels to Durham for a matchup where the simulation decisively favours Duke. The Blue Devils' passing game, led by Walker Eget's projected 170 yards, will need to control the tempo against Tait Reynolds and Clemson's 160 projected passing yards. Everything hinges on whether Duke can establish the run: Nate Sheppard's 80 projected rushing yards would give the home side the possession advantage it needs. AccuScore's model has favoured one side this strongly in 2,217 graded games and won 76% of them. For Clemson to pull the upset, Jarvis Green and the Tigers' ground game would need to consistently move the chains and keep Duke's offence off the field.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | DUKE | EV | CLEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX ↗ | -7.5 | -153 | -2.7% | -153 | -14.6% |
| Book | DUKE | EV | CLEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -322 | -1.4% | +217 | -9.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -333 | -1.8% | +193 | -12.2% |
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Clemson (6-3 so far) project to finish 7.6–4.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Duke (7-2 so far) project to finish 7.9–4.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Duke 74% to beat Clemson (26%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Duke the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Duke a 74% chance of beating Clemson, against 26% for Clemson. Duke are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Clemson and Duke come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Clemson have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Duke have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2012: Clemson 2, Duke 1. The last meeting, on Nov 1, 2025, finished Duke 46, Clemson 45.
Clemson are 126-20 as favourite and 14-12 as underdog, and 66-17 on the road (80% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
Duke are 48-25 as favourite and 33-57 as underdog, and 44-40 at home (52% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CLEM | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 126-20 | 48-25 |
| As underdog | 14-12 | 33-57 |
| At home | 79-18 | 44-40 |
| On the road | 66-17 | 42-44 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →