Bowling Green
3-7
Toledo
8-2
Win Probability
Bowling Green travels to Toledo in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home Rockets. In 1,786 games where AccuScore leaned this strongly toward one side, that side won 86% of the time. The game turns on whether Bowling Green can generate enough offense to keep pace; Toledo's defense will need to execute at a high level to prevent an upset. Across eight statistically similar games, the favored side won 5 times, suggesting some vulnerability in this projection. A Falcons victory would require their offense to outperform expectations significantly.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TOL | EV | BGSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -719 | -1.7% | +530 | -2.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -851 | -2.6% | +434 | -9.4% |
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Bowling Green (3-7 so far) project to finish 3.8–8.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Toledo (8-2 so far) project to finish 9.4–2.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | 3.8–8.2 | 0% | 0% |
| Toledo | 9.4–2.6 | 43% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo 85% to beat Bowling Green (15%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Toledo the more likely winner at 85%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toledo a 85% chance of beating Bowling Green, against 15% for Bowling Green. Toledo are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Bowling Green and Toledo come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Bowling Green have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
Toledo have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2011: Bowling Green 4, Toledo 10. The last meeting, on Oct 11, 2025, finished Toledo 23, Bowling Green 28.
Bowling Green are 37-21 as favourite and 25-72 as underdog, and 38-51 on the road (43% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
Toledo are 88-27 as favourite and 13-29 as underdog, and 57-22 at home (72% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 37-21 | 88-27 |
| As underdog | 25-72 | 13-29 |
| At home | 30-46 | 57-22 |
| On the road | 38-51 | 49-39 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →