#18Oregon
6-3
Michigan State
3-6
Win Probability
Oregon travels to Michigan State as a decisive favourite in this matchup between the Ducks and the Spartans. The simulation leans heavily toward the visitors, a lean that mirrors AccuScore's record on games shaped this way—when the model has favoured a side this strongly across 1,780 graded games, that side won 86% of the time. Oregon's passing attack, led by Dylan Raiola's projected 190 yards, will test Michigan State's secondary, while the Spartans' Alessio Milivojevic is projected for just 140 passing yards in return. The game turns on whether Michigan State can generate enough offensive pressure to stay close; the Ducks would need Oregon's execution to break down markedly for the hosts to pull off an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | MSU | EV | ORE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX ↗ | +13.5 | -153 | -10.1% | -153 | -7.2% |
| Book | MSU | EV | ORE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +398 | -6.9% | -564 | -1.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +381 | -8.4% | -646 | -2.2% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon 83% to beat Michigan State (17%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon the more likely winner at 83%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Michigan State a 17% chance of beating Oregon, against 83% for Oregon. Michigan State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Oregon (6-3 so far) project to finish 7.7–4.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Michigan State (3-6 so far) project to finish 5.0–7.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 37% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 7.7–4.3 | 0% | 21% |
| Michigan State | 5.0–7.0 | 0% | 37% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Oregon and Michigan State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oregon have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Michigan State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Oregon are 105-24 as favourite and 14-18 as underdog, and 52-26 on the road (67% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ORE | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 105-24 | — |
| As underdog | 14-18 | — |
| At home | 78-18 | — |
| On the road | 52-26 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →